In many ways, handicapping a football game is like critiquing a film. Ask 10 people to break down the same game, and you'll get 10 different answers in terms of both what transpired and what it means moving forward.
On the heels of a plethora of plot twists in Week 3, properly processing each result and determining its predictive value takes a leading role as the curtain rises on Week 4.
Buccaneers +3 vs. Broncos
After an aerial assault led by Trevor Siemian on the road against a bruising Bengals defense, little doubt remains as to whether the defending champs are for real. Meanwhile, last week the Bucs blew a double-digit lead at home to a Rams team that failed to find the end zone in each of its first two games.
But the issue at hand isn't determining whether Denver is the better team - it's sorting through all available information to find an edge given the point spread for this particular matchup. As field goal favorites, the Broncos' supremacy is fully baked in.
Situationally, Denver is on the road for the second week in a row, this time facing a high-90s heat index that will do their furious pass rush no favors. The Bucs are home for the second straight week and with a trip to Carolina on deck, the time is now to get the bad taste of two straight embarrassing losses out of their mouths.
Teaser: Redskins -1.5 vs. Browns, Cardinals -1.5 vs. Rams
The logic behind this one is straightforward, essentially taking the Redskins and Cardinals simply to win outright at home against team's they're clearly better than.
For Washington, it's not a play on the home team so much as a play against the winless Browns, whose roster resembles an expansion team as Hue Jackson lays the foundation for a better future with less regard for the here and now.
In the second leg of the teaser, Arizona finds itself in a big-time bounce-back spot after barely bothering to show up in Buffalo last week. The Rams have a knack for hanging in there with the NFC West's elite, but may be in for a letdown off back-to-back upset wins. Even in a close call, a victory gets the Cardinals going back in the right direction.
Pick of the Week: Jets +2.5 vs. Seahawks
The Week 3 box score couldn't paint a much uglier portrait of the Jets, nor could the scoreboard reflect much better on Seattle.
In keeping the proper perspective and evaluating the specifics of this matchup, however, we can see the same issues for the Seahawks that plagued them in their only other road game thus far - an outright loss as touchdown favorites over the Rams in Week 2. Their offensive line is in disarray, lacking both chemistry and pedigree. Russell Wilson's signature elusiveness will be limited at best, a sprained left knee suffered last week on top of an already gimpy right ankle mitigating his mobility. This sets up the Jets' defensive line, arguably their biggest strength, for a field day.
Coming off a whopping 8-turnover game that has turned many in the marketplace against them, it doesn't take much of a story to see drastic improvement from the Jets at the snap of a finger.
Scoreboard
Last week: 2-1
Season: 5-4
Picks of the Week: 1-2